— See Separate Tables For Details Of Individual Forecasts

TOKYO (MNI) – The following are the median forecasts for Japanese
economic data due in the coming week provided by economists surveyed by
MNI.

Core machinery orders, a leading indicator of private capital
spending, are expected to show a moderate decline in May, in payback for
a strong 5.7% m/m gain in April.

But economists see an expected drop in May as just a temporary
blip, and expect machinery orders to remain in a moderate increasing
trend, supported by reconstruction-related demand.

According to the Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan for June, major
firms plan to increase their capex 6.2% on year in this fiscal year.
That is the highest figure seen in the June Tankan surveys in the past
since +7.7% in fiscal 2007.

The Cabinet Office has forecast that core machinery orders will
rise 2.5% on quarter in April-June, posting a second consecutive
quarterly gain after +0.9% in Q1 and -0.7% in Q4 2011.

Producer prices, as seen in the domestic corporate goods price
index (CGPI), are forecast to post a third consecutive year-on-year fall
as international commodity prices have been falling.

The BOJ has released revisions to the past figures of the index,
reflecting the change in the base year and the data formula that takes
place every five years.

The April CGPI fell 0.4% on year under the new 2010 base year,
compared with -0.3% under the 2005 base year.

On July 11, the BOJ will release revised May and preliminary June
CGPI figures under the new 2010 base year.

Meanwhile, the current account surplus is forecast at Y490.1
billion, down 14.7% on year, which would be the 15th year-on-year fall.

The trade balance is forecast to show a deficit of Y832.5 billion,
due to continued high costs of energy imports.

The income account, the largest component of the current account,
is expected to show a surplus of Y1.490 trillion, up 3.3% on year, which
would be the 14th straight year-on-year gain.

Monday, July 9, 0850 JST (2350 GMT Sunday): The Cabinet Office
releases May machinery orders. Forecast for core orders, which exclude
volatile demand from electric utilities and for ships: -3.3% on the
month, which would be the first fall in two months after +5.7% in April
and -2.8% in March.

Monday, July 9, 0850 JST (2350 GMT Sunday): The Ministry of Finance
releases the May current account balance. Forecasts: a current account
surplus of Y490.0 billion, down 14.7% on year, posting falls for 15
months in a row.

Wednesday, July 11, 0850 JST (2350 GMT Tuesday): The Bank of Japan
releases corporate goods price index (CGPI) for May and June. Forecast:
-1.0% on the year in June, posting the largest drop since -1.0% marked
in March 2010, after an expected -0.6% in May.

Wednesday, July 11, 0850 JST (2350 GMT Tuesday): The Ministry Of
Economy, Trade and Industry releases May tertiary industry index:
Forecast: +0.2% on the month, which would be the first gain in three
months after -0.3% in April and -0.6% in March.

skodama@marketnews.com
** MNI Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4838 **

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