Poll: Greece Leaving Euro Currency Union ?

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Citigroup seeing a 90% chance of it happening at the beginning of 2013 . What chance do you give it ? Sorry make that 12 to 18 months from now.

 

2012-07-25T23:30:00+0000

All|Asia Pacific

Ed Thomas

24 Comments

  1. Greece will NOT leave the euro.

  2. it will happen in september 2012

  3. that’s a quick one

  4. Greece leaves euro september 2012.

  5. It depends on what the Eco does. I believe LTRO 3 and 4 are on the way and that they may cut rates further. If the euro can depreciate in an orderly manner and bond yields don’t go much higher, Greece can manage. It really depends on Spain though, if Spain can stay healthy then less pressure will be put on Greece.

  6. ok, thats two of you for sept 2012

  7. Since I have Dec FOPs, good bet right after they expire (g).

    Dave

  8. greece won’t leave the EURO

  9. Gonna hook this in with the Mayans… Dec 21, 2012 for the date it officially happens (but acknowledgement may take place prior) :)

  10. As Tony Walker says Greece will not leave the Euro, the EU will threw them out :)

    If we are clever they have to leave the Euro on September but the US elections will be on November so nothing will happen before that.

    I Bet for December or Maybe 2nd half of Nov.

  11. Maybe germany will leave the euro and let greece have it. Everybody happy.

  12. :) so the 22nd is out of the question then

  13. Wouldn’t it be easier if Germany (and maybe Finland and the Netherlands) left? People would trust the deutsche mark, the periphery could inflate their currency, and all of the economies could recover faster. That being said, logic is never the most useful tool in forecasting govenment moves, so I’ll say Jan 2013.

  14. lets go the dec 20th one day ahead of franks prediction

  15. add a little rum (or that other Jamican thing) and you have “Don’t worry , Be Happy ” :)

  16. Hi Ed. Greece will leave Euro before end of the year (when all Greeks will starving).

  17. nah still plenty of Ouzo and olives around :)

  18. i said september because i think it has to happen and italy devaluate the lira in 1992 after big market storm in the summer.the scenario is exactly the same and the sooner,the better.the problem is that all the pigs will follow excluding the ireland.maybe,they should join to do a club med currency:)

  19. well they certainly have the coastline to do it . What to call the new currency though ?

  20. After a googol years, if Greece fails Europe fails, and that is why they will be kept in the Euro.

  21. I suppose Citi holding short EURUSD and want to earn a nice profit by year end. Greece won’t leave EZ but other bad news in the periphery could press EURUSD lower.

  22. would that be their prop a/c

  23. September.

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