US DATA: We have investigated what the DOL economist said about Oct 6 unemploy
claims data and we believe that a wire misinterpreted the statement. Some
believe the spokesman said that one state accounted for most of the drop in
claims. But that is not what we heard. The spokesman actually said one state had
a drop in claims while the others had the ‘usual’ rise at the start of the qtr,
not implying anything about the magnitude of the drop. This statement seems to
have morphed incorrectly into a special factor. We will try to get better
confirmation. But precise state by state data are only available with a lag and
the spokesman would not have said there were no special factors if, say,
California had dropped into the ocean.