Non-farm payrolls preview: By the numbers

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Here are some of the numbers to consider ahead of tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report. Release time is 8:30 am ET.

  • Median estimate 125K (125K private as well)
  • Sept reading: 114K
  • High est 168K
  • Low est 30K
  • NFP 6-month avg 106K
  • Unemployment rate est. at 7.9% vs 7.8% prior
  • ADP 125K vs 114K prior (135K exp)
  • ISM manufacturing employment 52.1 vs 54.7 prior
  • ISM non-manufacturing employment: to be released Nov 5
  • Challenger job cuts 48K vs 34K in Sept, five month high
  • TrimTabs estimate based withheld income and employment taxes 140K
  • Monster Oct employment index: to be released Nov 2
  • Consumer Confidence jobs-hard-to-get: 39.4 vs 40.7 prior
  • Philly Fed employment: -10.7 vs -7.3 prior
  • Chicago PMI employment: 50.3 vs 52.0 prior
  • Initial jobless claims 4-wk moving avg: 367K vs 375K at the time of the Sept jobs report
  • Conference Board’s Help Wanted OnLine (HWOL) Index: -77.8K to 4736K
  • Aug JOLTS job openings: 3561 vs 3735 exp

My favorite pre-NFP indicator is the employment component of the ISM non-manufacturing index. Unfortunately, this month it won’t be released until Monday.

One thing that might point to a better number is the 342K reading in initial jobless claims in early October. Although it seems to have been a bureaucratic error, the low number came during non-farm payrolls survey week.

If you want to make your prediction, you can win a t shirt. if you want my prediction: the political spinsters will earning their salaries tomorrow.

Author: Adam Button

Adam Button is the managing editor of ForexLive™. He was previously the chief currency strategist at XForex and has also worked with Intermarket Strategy. Adam believes there's an edge in knowing every tidbit of news. He was formerly the head of the markets team at the Canadian Economic Press and is a graduate of Ryerson University. Adam lives in Montreal, follow him on Twitter: @FX_Button.



employment|Jobs|non-farm payrolls|non-farm payrolls preview|Preview

Adam Button


  1. It’s gonna beat… they would have delayed it and blamed it on the weather if it were a bad number.

  2. Hi Adam,
    Do you have any idea what the EURCHF is doing at the moment?
    It’s creeping down slowly without much bounce.
    Is the SNB too happy with their profit the first three quaters so they don’t mind to buy again down at the floor?

  3. It’s strange because the thinking is that they’re done selling euros to rebalance their portfolio, that should add upward pressure. I have been skeptical of EUR/CHF above 1.20 for awhile so I’m not surprised but the timing doesn’t make any sense. The Greek pension news perhaps?

  4. Adam can you post up a picture of the comparison of the non mfg ism employment compared to NFP I’m curious to see the correlation

  5. I can’t do that one at the moment but I can tell you it’s good, but with a caveat. In the last 4-5 months it has been bad.

  6. Hi Adam, good to see you dear sir (:
    Can you make a small prediction about gold, will it back up soon?
    Or it will keep down for days?


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