–Earnings, Hrs Dip; Unemployment is a Rebound as Lab Force, Partic Gain
By Joseph Plocek
WASHINGTON (MNI) – The U.S. October employment data showed somewhat
mixed results, with payrolls playing catch-up to validate a declining
unemployment rate but with companion data a little weaker. Moreover, the
report mainly was processed before Hurricane Sandy struck, so there was
no storm effect.
Overall the October employment report was on the strong side, with
October payrolls printing +171,000 and September-August jobs revised up
+84,000 in total, showing catchup to the better trends seen in the
household survey. Payrolls are our favorite gauge of jobs because the
survey from which they derive has a larger sample and a smaller margin
of error than the household survey.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the hurricane had “no
discernable effect” on the data because the household calls were
completed before storm and the establishment responses were within the
normal range.
The unemployment rate rebounded +0.1 point to 7.9% after declining
0.5 point in the prior two months. The labor force and participation
rate rose. The fact remains that unemployment seems to be on a
declining trend.
Average Hourly Earnings fell one cent for +1.6% over the year,
and hours dipped, suggesting soft incomes and production ahead.
The payroll composition was as it has been recently: manufacturing
+13,000, construction +17,000, retail +36,400, temporary jobs +13,600,
restaurants +22,900, healthcare +30,500, and government -13,000
(on dips across areas).
A bottom line is that this was a decent report. The average monthly
jobs gain so far in 2012, however, is +157,000, and the economy will
have to do a lot better than that to surge ahead.
Details: Payrolls/Prior All AHE,yoy Agg Hrs Civ Unempl Rt/Unrnd
Oct +171k —- +1.6% 103.7 7.9% (7.8758%)
Sep +148k +114k —– 103.8r 7.8% (7.7955%)
Aug +192k +142k —– 103.4r 8.1% (8.1115%)
** MNI Washington Bureau: (202) 371-2121 **
[TOPICS: M$U$$$,MAUDS$,MT$$$$,MAUDR$,MTABLE]
