The 10 critical things to consider ahead of today’s RBA decision

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  1. The Bloomberg survey says 20 of 27 economists expect the RBA cut today
  2. Just 9 of 26 economists correctly called the rate cut last month
  3. Of the 9 who were correct last month, 7 expect the RBA to cut today
  4. Westpac was correct last month and is ranked as the top RBA forecaster. Westpac economists and the bank’s CEO are calling for a cut today.
  5. The OIS market is 51% priced for a cut after hitting as high as 80% before the CPI numbers
  6. Interbank futures price a 60% chance of a hold
  7. All market-based metrics, show that a cut is virtually certain by year-end
  8. Herald Sun columnist McCrann says the RBA will hold but he has a nearly unblemished record of being wrong this year
  9. David Uren at The Australian (who is much better than McCrann) says there is a less than 50% chance of a cut
  10. The RBA has adjusted interest rates in Nov in every year since Stevens took over in 2006

This is one of the toughest calls in a long time — even tougher than the US election. My best guess is that they hold and AUD/USD rallies above 1.04.

Author: Adam Button

Adam Button is the managing editor of ForexLiveâ„¢. He was previously the chief currency strategist at XForex and has also worked with Intermarket Strategy. Adam believes there's an edge in knowing every tidbit of news. He was formerly the head of the markets team at the Canadian Economic Press and is a graduate of Ryerson University. Adam lives in Montreal, follow him on Twitter: @FX_Button.


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Adam Button


  1. won’t cut; and I’ll have to work some more in savin’ my aud/usd short… the annoyance…

  2. if it rallies above 1.04 – it’s going to be a short lived rally^^

  3. Interbank futures now into 50%
    Betfair even lower , trading at 45% ; –


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