–Updating Story Published 11:53 ET To Include Latest Gallup Poll

By Kasra Kangarloo

WASHINGTON (MNI) – With only a day left before the U.S.
presidential election, President Barack Obama has secured a slight edge
in national polling over Republican challenger Mitt Romney.

The latest figure from Pew Research, a widely respected polling
outfit whose results have closely tracked polling averages throughout
the campaign, currently shows the president with a three-point lead —
this after showing a tie in the previous week’s poll.

Following the first presidential debate, which was widely viewed as
a definitive victory for Romney, the Pew poll saw a historically
unprecedented twelve-point swing in the challenger’s favor. It showed a
four-point lead after dipping to an eight-point deficit over the month
of September.

Since the middle of October, however, the surge in Romney’s
national figures has slowly subsided, giving way to a slim but decisive
Obama lead in the final days of the campaign.

Polls from NBC News/Wall Street Journal and ABC News/Washington
Post each show a one-point lead for the president.

More critical still, each of these polls test views among “likely
voters,” a category Obama has unequivocally struggled with since the
first presidential debate.

Gallup’s poll of likely voters, which had shown a steay five- or
six-point lead for Romney since the first debate, showed only a
one-point lead in the latest figure — a clear sign of movement in the
president’s direction.

Though the electoral college map hasn’t changed — Obama still
holds the edge in a number of key swing states — the positive movement
in the national polls still serves as an important buffer in the event
that state polls have been systematically overestimating the president’s
advantage.

This is an unlikely contingency, though still possible. Polls are
by nature imperfect, and until the latest batch of national polls many
observers had noted a significant discrepancy between state and national
polling.

The gap suggested either a split between the popular vote and
electoral college, or a fundamental bias within either the state or
national data.

While this is still a possibility, the latest national polls bring
the state and national averages into better harmony, and decrease the
likelihood that any systemic issues are skewing one set of polls against
the other.

Either way, the bottom line remains the same. Obama has the edge
where it counts. Ohio, Nevada and Wisconsin still lean in his favor,
enough to secure the electoral college.

Meanwhile Romney’s key battleground states — Virginia, Florida and
Colorado — are still too close to call.

Poll results compiled by MNI from the organizations beginning 7/1.

Results as of: October 17, 2012
Margin
Survey Sample of
Dates Organization Obama Chg Romney Chg Size Error

7-day rolling Gallup Tracking 48% +2 49% -2 2700 LV 2.0%
3-day rolling Rasmussen Tracking 48% +1 49% 0 1500 LV 3.0%
10/31-11/03 Pew Research 50% +3 47% 0 2709 LV 2.2%
11/01-11/03 NBC News/WSJ 48% +1 47% 0 1475 LV 2.6%
10/31-11/03 ABC News/Wash. Post 49% +1 48% -1 2069 LV 2.5%
11/02-11/04 CNN/ORC 49% -1 49% +2 693 LV 3.5%
10/29-10/30 POLITICO/GWU 48% -1 48% 0 1000 LV 3.1%
10/28-10/30 Fox News 46% +1 46% 0 1128 LV 3.0%
10/31-11/04 Reuters/Ipsos 48% +1 47% +1 3805 LV 3.4%

10/25-10/28 CBS News/NY Times 48% -1 47% +1 563 LV 4.0%
10/26-10/30 Reuters/Ipsos 47% +1 46% -1 2356 LV 3.4%
10/22-10/27 IBD/TIPP 45% -2 44% 0 930 LV 3.5%

10/22-10/24 Public Policy Polling 49% +1 48% 0 1200 LV 2.8%
10/19-10/23 Associated Press/GfK 45% 47% 839 LV 4.2%

10/18-10/20 Wash. Times/JZ Analytics 50% 47% 800 LV 3.5%

10/13-10/15 YouGov/Economist 47% -2 46% +1 826 LV 3.5%

10/12-10/13 Newsmax/Zogby 47% -2 44% +3 863 LV 3.4%

10/08-10/10 Monmouth U. 46% -2 47% +6 1571 LV 2.5%
10/09-10/09 Fox News 45% -3 46% +2 1092 LV 3.0%

9/26-9/30 NPR 51% 44% 800 LV 4.0%
9/28-9/30 CNN/ORC 50% +2 47% -1 783 LV 3.5%
9/27-9/30 National Journal 47% 47% LV 4.5%
9/25-9/30 Quinnipiac 49% +3 45% +2 1912 LV 2.2%

9/21-9/24 Bloomberg 49% 43% 789 LV 3.5%

9/08-9/12 Democracy Corps 50% 45% 1000 LV 3.1%

8/16-8/19 Daily Kos/SEIU 49% +2 45% 0 1000 RV 3.1%
8/15-8/16 Angus Reid 45% -2 49% +2 1007 LV 3.1%

8/03-8/10 IBD/CSM/TIPP 46% 39% 828 RV 3.5%

7/09-7/12 D.C./R.R./NPR 47% 45% 1000 LV 3.1%
7/09-7/11 McClatchy/Marist 48% 46% 849 RV 3.5%

RV = Registered voters
LV = Likely voters
G = General population
Chg = Change from previous poll. Change for rolling polls from one week prior.

** MNI Washington Bureau (202) 371-2121 **

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