The 10 best central bankers since the crisis

View Comments

If you can name more than 25 central bankers, you’re probably a foreign exchange trader. Here are 10 central bankers who distinguished themselves since the crisis began.

3. Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher

In my mind, economic forecasting is the most important part of central banking. On that front, Fisher has been a failure. His repeated overly-optimistic forecasts and warnings about inflation have been way off the mark.

So why is he on my list? Every central bank needs some balance. Even at a time that calls for the most dovish monetary policy in history, there needs to be someone warning about the risks. Fisher is in the position to do that because he has no real power.

He also gets points because he is a great communicator. As we saw yesterday, he isn’t afraid to speak his mind but he remains relatively diplomatic and doesn’t fight battles as if they’re life and death. At the end of the day, he’s a good central banker but he would make a great politician.

2. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard

There is a good chance that Bullard will be FOMC president one day so keep an ear open when he’s speaking. He’s on my list because he has a rare talent — the ability to change his mind.

In the hyper-critical modern world, it’s a bigger sin to change your mind than to be wrong. But at the end of the day, isn’t the aim to get it right?

Bullard has seemingly been on both sides of every QE debate. As the facts changed, he changed. As any good FX trader knows, there is nothing wrong with that.

1. BOE MPC member David Blanchflower (2006-2009)

It’s tough to love a dove.

Hawks get all the respect in central banking; they are the ‘adults’ who warn about the long-term effects of looser policy now. Being a dove is equated with a panicky, worrisome personality.

Enter the crisis: The global financial system was collapsing yet so many central bankers were looking at lagging CPI numbers, warning about inflation. Most of them should have been dragged out of office years ago for their ineptitude.

Blanchflower was voting for rate cuts for a full year before the Bank of England finally figured out the global economy was in trouble (after Lehman collapsed).

He is a poor diplomat and has made enemies by repeatedly criticizing the Mervyn King-led Bank of England but he is out there (on twitter) telling it the way he sees it.

On my list, a central banker is like a foreign exchange trader — credits for for style are secondary, being right is what counts. Not many central banks saw the crisis as clearly as Blanchflower.

The rest of the list:

4. Ben Bernanke – a controversial figure because politicians have used him to score points but history will ultimately put him at the top of every list.

5. Fmr ECB vice president Lucas Papademos – Trichet’s right hand man was a steady hand throughout the crisis. He gets full points for resigning to be Prime Minister in Greece’s caretaker government after Papandreou abruptly quit.

6. Fmr Deputy RBA gov (2007-2012) Ric Battellino – This guy called the bottom of the crisis in Australia. He said things were getting better at the very depths of the crisis. I laughed at the time, but he was right. He loses points because later (including this year) he was far too hawkish.

7. Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann – A welcome departure from the comical hawkishness of successive BUBA leaders.

8. BOC Governor Mark Carney – A model for modern central bank communication. He was also the fore-bearer of the ‘calendar-driven’ guidance that the Fed eventually adopted.

9. BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa – Dealt an incredibly tough hand, having taken over in March 2008 and forced to deal with the tsunami disaster. Didn’t have many cards to play but he has battled.

10. Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota – He’s on my list for the same reason as Bullard, flexibility.

Author: Adam Button

Adam Button is the managing editor of ForexLiveâ„¢. He was previously the chief currency strategist at XForex and has also worked with Intermarket Strategy. Adam believes there's an edge in knowing every tidbit of news. He was formerly the head of the markets team at the Canadian Economic Press and is a graduate of Ryerson University. Adam lives in Montreal, follow him on Twitter: @FX_Button.

2012-11-16T21:43:22+0000

All|Americas|Central Banks|Featured|Regions

best central bankers|Blanchflower|Bullard|Fisher|top 10 central bankers

Adam Button

5 Comments

  1. How come China’s central bankers aren’t on that list? I’d say they did a pretty good job considering their economy is still chugging along even though everywhere else seems to be face planting.

  2. There’s also our central banker of Lebanon – Riad Salame – he has taken several awards worldwide. Add to it, that we’re the country with the highest gold reserves over GDP ratio in the world, and the #2 in terms of gold reserves per capita (after Switzerland). His cons like any other central banker is preferring politicians over the people, government over businesses, and large businesses over small ones.

  3. To the ForexLive analysts — Thank you for helping us through this very volatile week of political drama…

  4. Just for his answer to a German journalist, I would nominate Jean Claude Trichet. http://youtu.be/8CGK5enjcbc

  5. I would rather nominate a local gipsie with a glass ball. She’s so much better fortuneteller than those pathetic dudes.

Top

© Copyright 2014 ForexLive™  |  Advertise With Us  |  Login To Comment  |  Sitemap

HIGH RISK WARNING: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all of your initial investment; do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Educate yourself on the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions.

ADVISORY WARNING: FOREXLIVE™ provides references and links to selected blogs and other sources of economic and market information as an educational service to its clients and prospects and does not endorse the opinions or recommendations of the blogs or other sources of information. Clients and prospects are advised to carefully consider the opinions and analysis offered in the blogs or other information sources in the context of the client or prospect's individual analysis and decision making. None of the blogs or other sources of information is to be considered as constituting a track record. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and FOREXLIVE™ specifically advises clients and prospects to carefully review all claims and representations made by advisors, bloggers, money managers and system vendors before investing any funds or opening an account with any Forex dealer. Any news, opinions, research, data, or other information contained within this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment or trading advice. FOREXLIVE™ expressly disclaims any liability for any lost principal or profits without limitation which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. As with all such advisory services, past results are never a guarantee of future results.