The Australian dollar is among the worst performers today but it’s only down 30 pips.
The declines began after the RBA minutes overnight, which continued to point to future rate cuts. The question is: when? The OIS market is pricing a 60% chance of a rate cut at the Dec 5 meeting, which is the same as a day ago.
That leaves the market watching data. In the day ahead, there are no notable releases so lets have a look at the short-term technicals.
Today’s low nearly matched the 50% retracement and has rebounded almost 30 pips, breaking a short-term downtrend. That points to a return to 1.0400/20.
Beyond that, it depends on sentiment but if Stevens’ attempts to talk down AUD are so easily dismissed, the near-term path is likely higher.
