TOKYO (MNI) – The following are the median forecasts for Japanese
economic data due in the coming week provided by economists surveyed by
Japan is expected to post a trade deficit for the fourth straight
month in October but the shortfall, forecast at Y337.0 billion, is seen
smaller than the Y561.7 billion deficit recorded in September.
The narrower deficit projected for October is partly because
the year-on-year drop in exports last month was slower than the rate
of decrease in September.
Exports fell 3.8% in October 2011, hit by the yen’s rise to record
highs, while shipments to the world rose 2.3% in September 2011, which
led to a sharper year-on-year drop in exports for September 2012.
But the overall picture remains the same.
Global demand for Japanese cars, electronics and general machinery
is still sluggish, which has been aggravated by Chinese boycott of
Japanese products since September in light of the bilateral territorial
In October exports are forecast to have fallen 5.1% on year, which
would be a fifth consecutive drop after -10.3% in September on lower
shipments of automobiles, steel products and ships.
Imports are expected to have slipped 3.8% last month, which would
be the first fall in two months after +4.1% in September, led by lower
imports of crude oil, coal and non-ferrous metals.
Economists expect Japan’s trade deficit will total Y5.57 trillion
in fiscal 2012 and Y4.01 trillion in fiscal 2013 — both wider than
previously projected — after a Y4.42 trillion deficit in fiscal 2011,
according to the latest monthly survey by the Japan Center for Economic
Wednesday, Nov. 21, 0850 JST (2350 GMT Tuesday): The Ministry of
Finance releases October trade data.
Forecast: A trade deficit worth Y337.0 billion, which would be a
fourth straight monthly shortfall after a deficit of Y561.7 billion in
September; exports -5.1% y/y vs. -10.3% in September; imports -3.8% y/y