It has been a tough year for the perma-bears. The euro hasn’t collapsed, stocks are higher and gold hasn’t matched the 2011 high. One of the biggest bears, SocGen’s Dylan Grice has left his post; his final letter to clients is here.
He doesn’t make too many poignant comments but this is one worth pondering.
We spend so much time and energy trying to be clever: what the Fed will do next; what it should do next; where oil prices will go; what the effect will be on the economy; when the recovery will come; if the recovery will come; will China see a revolution; will Russia revolt against Tsar Putin; et cetera, et cetera. It may be better to focus instead on not being dumb. How good are we at making these predictions?
