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Japanese economy|USD/JPY

Pete Jackson


  1. By doomed, you mean to depreciate and fall off its highs?

  2. Why is the yen doomed? Because every last analyst says so, regardless how junior and senior? How many times have I heard the same story, how many times…why is this time different. I do not see any fundamental change. The point is all other safe heaven currencies are faring worse, fundamentally. Japanese debt is mostly owned by domestics. Please school me how the USD and CHF are more attractive risk off currencies to go into? I just do not see it. People suck on the “tits” of charts like crack addicts, each time they see a little crack in their candles they scream “the yen is doomed”. I will certainly not bet against big fundamental moves but gentlement, usdjpy appreciated from 79…82 and all of you get excited…

  3. In case someone brings up the elections, what difference is it gonna make? I studied in Japan, I lived in Japan the past 10 years. I have almost seen more prime ministers come and go than you have seen presidents in the US in the past 40-50 years. BOJ will not lose its independent mandate, even if they raise their inflation target, so what? Its not like they have a successful track record in containing deflation (chuckle, chuckle). Japan is not run by politicians or bureaucrats, it is in the firm grips of big business, which has not changed in over 70 years. Nobody in politics is gonna change the course of Japanese economics. Big business needs to be further squeezed by China and Co. before they wake up and start becoming innovative again. Until then its all business as usual, the tavern and bars are loaded every single night in and around Tokyo, which slowdown or recession are we talking about? Yen doomed, hmm, so far I hold firmly against this thesis (and I actually do take occasional shorts in usdjpy and buy the yen in risk off environments, still nothing beats the volatility in yen crosses).


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