EUR/JPY gained 4.3% in November to lead G10 FX but the 400+ pip gain wasn’t exactly a smooth ride.
The pair fell 300 pips in the first half of the month to 100.34 before storming to 107.69 since Nov 13.
It was the fourth consecutive month of gains and the monthly chart has not broken out of the channel since late-2009.
It has been four months of gains but the magnitude of the moves hasn’t been overwhelming and that means this pair is still a buy but I worry that the short-yen trade is overcrowded.
The chart points to an eventual test of 110/111, at least.