AUD/USD remains wedged

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Really going nowhere at the moment, with  weaker business  confidence data shrugged off earlier and even recent rate cuts failing to turn the pair lower for the moment.

Sovereigns, exporters and real money are lined up on bids in the 1.0450/60 (Tenkan line 1.0454) area with talk of some  sell stops building down through 1.0440.  Below here are bids again in the 1.0400/10 zone which includes the Kijun line at 1.0401, and the 100 day MA just below, at 1.0399

On the topside offers remain up at 1.0500/10 with some rumblings of possible RBA commercial interest as well at the level. Above there are more protecting offers in front of barriers at 1.0525 and 1.0550 with buy stops on breaks of both.

AUD’s presently sitting at 1.0481



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Pete Jackson

One Comment

  1. Nearer term a$ outlook:
    No change as the choppy trade since Aug is seen part of a longer term topping below the ceiling of the large triangle/pennant that has been forming since July 2011 . However, there is still no confirmation of a more important top, the seasonal chart points higher into the end of the year and may be forming a rising wedge/reversal pattern since Oct, with all suggesting another few weeks of ranging higher, before finally completing that more important top .Key support is seen at the bull trendline from Oct/base of the wedge (currently at 1.0330/45) while resistance is seen at 1.0495/15 (recent highs, ceiling of wedge) and 1.0590/15 (Aug/Sept high, ceiling of the large triangle).


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