Reuters poll: 14 out of 19 economists expect BOJ to ease monetary policy at Dec 19-20 meeting

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What do the good readers of Forexlive think?

USD/JPY at 83.86, EUR/JPY at 109.90.  Barrier option interest at 84.00 and 110.00 respectively the next hurdles for the rampant yen bears.

2012-12-14T06:22:05+0000

All|Europe|Market Rumors|Regions

BOJ|Japan

Gerry Davies

8 Comments

  1. Thanks Gerry

    Never made so easy money from EURJPY…..

  2. Hi Lisa, yes its been a decent run. Nice to see something resembling a proper trend. Now the slightly more tricky part. How much is a resounding LDP victory at the weekend/BOJ easing next week discounted in current rate?

  3. I think it’s time for profit taking. All those FX brokers – on the other side, cannot afford to ‘satisfy’ for so long time all of their clients, buying permanently this pair. Their losses should be huge till now.

  4. Well I never like being the last person to leave a party so I’m out of the EUR/JPY thing. I don’t know much about anything so I just stick to the basic premise that what goes up eventually comes down and in FX it usually has flames attached!

  5. I guess the BOJ will ease, although it would be great for trading if they didn’t!

    Not sure the brokers are necessarily doing badly lisa, I think a lot of them operate on volume these days, making money from their spreads rather than scamming their customers (which isn’t a sustainable business strategy). You’ve also got real users of currencies out there such as businesses etc who have to trade, even if they could get better rates if they were able to wait a day. If anything the Japanese exporter has had profits ripped away from it by forex speculators in recent years, and now they are getting some reprieve as the specs go in the opposite direction. I hope they are enjoying it while it lasts!

  6. I agree fxgai, brokers will not be taking the other side of this big trend. More likely it is built by traders going short after 50-100 pips expecting the bull run to end. When it keeps going up these shorts cover, adding to the upward pressure. New traders again go short thinking ‘this must end’ and cover a little further up. And so it goes. Until the aggregate sentiment changes, this keeps going one way.

  7. Shirakawa is the most business damaging central banker in the history of BOJ. kick this guy out immediately. His policy? A stronger YEN. Great job. Countless Japanese companies have left Japan for cheaper destinations. Deflationary tendencies (inflation running at -0,4%). Apart from that, he didn´t make the FX industry a favor when supporting the deleveragging of the retail FX space. Japanese retail investors now opening accounts overseas. Shirakawa = not good for Japan.

  8. I can’t see the BOJ differing from their track especially straight after an election. It’s just too soon for any meaningful changes to be put in place. Whatever election promises the LDP have made, they’ve still got to get it through parliament and still need 320 seats to make it an easy ride.
    The LDP win is priced in but I’ll be shorting $/Y into the weekend as I don’t think they’ll get as many seats as Mr Market is expecting.

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