AUD/USD marches higher…

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Strong AUD/JPY demand continues to lift this pair  with the cross recently hitting fresh 4yr 4mth highs at 93.29.

AUD/USD ‘s now targeting the Dec 12 high of 1.0585 with offers just above into 1.0600 (possible barrier).  A break there  opens up to 14 Sept high of 1.0625  and 1.0670 (March 8 high). Bids now lie down at 1.0500/10 and run down to 1.0480. Some sell stops are reported just under there.

EUR/AUD has also helped the cause, slipping back under the 200 day MA at  1.2407  to 1.2357 after highs in Asia of  1.2437

17 Comments

  1. Hi Pete, I remember the heavy euro short position in COT was often cited as the reason for euro’s rise last couple months as crowded shorts get squeezed – if so, then why is the same not applicable to AUDJPY – with large amount of AUD longs and JPY shorts – yet it is still heavily bid? I am long AJ (as a hedge to my suffering core AU short) but is very wary of the super surge. Haven’t seen this sort of rise in years and in many past occasions these surges ended in equally dramatic drops. At which levels would you consider the AJ up trend broken (and time to get out)?

  2. Morning Galantnosts, Yes it’s a bit of scary move especially when you look back 4 year ago and see the next possible impending move in aud/jpy. Mind me asking what level you got in at ?

  3. Half at 88 and half at 91.3 (added post fiscal-cliff). And a bunch of unhappy stale AU shorts scattered in 1.04 – 1.06 Should have listened to your AU bullish call :)

  4. Well, sitting here listening to CNBC, there’s still a lot of talk of people saying its (AUD/USD) too high, but i remain bullish to be honest as long as China powers ahead, iron ore’s firm and the interest differential remains. And if Abe puts his money where his mouth is then i see aud/jpy continuing upwards

  5. GM Pete,
    You mean “next possible impending move” UP?

  6. morning wreck, yes

  7. Thanks Pete. Think I will keep my positions and wait-and-see for the moment!

  8. Break above 0565/85 very bullish nearterm.

  9. weekly chart resistance at 1.0576
    a bloody great sell levels
    chinese trade data? oh well, can you trust em ?

  10. probably not… ;)

  11. For those that may be entertaining the short side of $AUDUSD at 1.0600 – keep in mind Chinese inflation data due out tonight..

  12. AUD/USD will break 1.06 level and after that it would be a great sell level as it would rally down back to 1.01 level. chinese trade data will get 1.06 level broken soon but it wont last very long.

  13. I read somewhere that some analyst predicted AUD/USD to touch 1.10 level which i highly doubt. so whats your viewpoint on this pete?

  14. Wasn’t me was it :) .. it’s not unrealistic a lot depends on China, iron ore and RBA. I think a break of 1.0600 could light the afterburners though. I’m still bullish to be honest

  15. @shanz: The’ve been saying that…for the Last 6 months ? should I Hold my Breath ?

  16. Yeaahh for Pete…he sees…the light….Smart Man

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