Here’s the problem with an improved jobs market

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We could have improvement in the employment situation and a rise in the unemployment rate at the same time.

Why? Because discouraged workers who quit looking for work restart the job hunt, which raises the participation rate. The higher the participation rate without an increased pace of new hires leads to jump in the unemployment rate…The participation rate is historically quite low, so unemployment rate is unlikely to drop sharply in the months ahead.


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Jamie Coleman


  1. fido could have told you that

  2. Thus the idiocy of tying treasury and MBS purchase to the RATE.

  3. Hi, jamie,

    That means no problems for QE and EURUSD rally?

  4. So whats the takeaway?

  5. But i suspect the fed’s 6.5 target may not be such a hard threshold if structural issue of the low participation rate is being gradually resolved. (that’s a lot of lost potential which can be recovered)

  6. Thx Jamie. Always was wondering how zhis is possible.
    @45teeth they do tying treasuries and MBAs to the rate? Really – why?


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