Euro longs mount in latest CFTC positioning report

Weekly speculative futures positioning as of the close on Tuesday in the Commitments of traders report:

  • EUR long 38K vs 27K last week
  • JPY short 68K vs 71K last week
  • GBP long 1K vs 11K last week
  • AUD long 81K vs 85K last week
  • CAD long 27K vs 35K last week
  • CHF long 4K vs 4K last week

Euro not longs at the highest since July 2011.

The smart money doesn’t seem so smart on this trade. Longs have been hit since Tuesday’s close.

The other takeaway might be CAD positioning which has crumbled from +70K since mid-January. USD/CAD is up 1.5 cents in that time but given the rapid shift in sentiment, I would expect it to have moved more. You could interpret that as a bearish sign for USD/CAD.

Author: Adam Button

Adam Button is the editor of ForexLive™. He was previously the chief currency strategist at XForex and has also worked with Intermarket Strategy. Adam believes deeply in the value of knowing every tidbit of news. He has a background in journalism and was formerly the head of the markets team at the Canadian Economic Press. He is a graduate of Ryerson University and completed Level 1 of the CFA program. Adam lives in Montreal, follow him on Twitter: @FX_Button.

12 Comments

  1. Hola Adam, como puedo interpretar estas cifras?

    how can i to read this numbers and use it in my daily trades? Thanks

  2. Hola Ramiro, voy a usar ingles porque tenia una semana dificil…

    Generally, you don’t want to be long when the market is very long and vice versa. Another rule of thumb is to follow specs when they change from long to short (and vice versa).

  3. I see GBP only 1k long, any idea what that would have been in Aug/Sept ’12?

  4. Gracias por su oportuna y rápida explicación. Feliz fin de semana.

  5. Mucho gusto Ramiro, quando hablar espanol es mas facil a olvidar que hace mucho frio aqui :)

  6. Thanks Adam, interestingly correlated with GBPUSD price action.

  7. ditto the stock market..record inflows in the month of january(when S&P is at records) when the economic situation worldwide looks a bit weak

  8. I really don’t understand all these speculative positions charts. Seems to be very tricky. You’re right about EUR. This info does not reflect the market mood.

  9. Err… not sure about the whole usdcad bearish sign. That is, it may work that way in medium term – but in short term, usdcad is likely to go above 1.01. At the same time, aye, there is no significant sign that usdcad will break above 1.02 just yet – the moves are still rather timid.

    usdgbp price action was interesting – I still think that it will go south in medium/long term, and that move down will be very significant – in fact, it will be rather similar to the price action we are witnessing in the jpy pairs. I am basing this solely on fundamental analysis – something that should not be ignored when looking at the long term charts. GBP is going to go through major bouts of uncertainty in the coming year/s. One of the biggest risks is the Scotland referendum in the fall of 2014 – it puts GBP in great peril until then (hence a move down until 2014).

    Anyway, in the near term there is a chance that usdgbp will first test 1.60 prior to moving south. In the end though, given the multi-year triangle, and how close we are to seeing its resolution (within a month or a bit longer), it may be safer to just wait it out and buy or sell when the weekly candle closes above or below the triangle formation lines.

  10. Well, sure. Long EUR got to be a crowded trade, what with the usual suspects out talking their books, even. So the inevitable happens. For how long and how far is the only question. Looks like support in the vicinity of 1.325, perhaps less so around 1.33. Or maybe this will develop into something really serious, but probably not. Next week could be interesting, in any case.

  11. Ur reference to usdcad would read vice versa for Audusd then…has fallen quite a bit but specs still near record long positioning…gotta wonder how long they are going to hold on for and how much carnage there will be when they bail

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