USD/JPY seeping lower

The durable goods orders data was USD-supportive but dollar-yen continues to edge lower.

The pair is at the lows of the day, down 66 pips to 91.32. Yesterday’s low of 91.12 and Monday’s spike low of 90.86 are the key chart levels.

The orderboard shows strong demand at 90.20 with more a few pips ahead of 90.00 and stops below. More bids from Monday’s low down to 90.75.

As I said yesterday, the inability to bounce yesterday and today is a negative sign for USD/JPY and the yen crosses.

USDJPY hourly

USDJPY hourly

Author: Adam Button

Adam Button is the managing editor of ForexLive™. He was previously the chief currency strategist at XForex and has also worked with Intermarket Strategy. Adam believes there's an edge in knowing every tidbit of news. He was formerly the head of the markets team at the Canadian Economic Press and is a graduate of Ryerson University. Adam lives in Montreal, follow him on Twitter: @FX_Button.

31 Comments

  1. Bullish pin bar on hourly – can it hold….

  2. Clearly, this is going to be a long day.

    I still suspect that we’ll see a bullish move in the yen crosses.

  3. When do you think we will see a bullish move.
    Do you think now is a good time to buy. Will it hold above 91?

  4. Well, we are seeing a bullish move now – I can’t give specifics on timing – in any case, I do not expect a new high in the usdjpy pair. In fact, the move higher should be a prelude to a big crash, similar to the one we saw a few days ago.

    Much of my tech analysis is based on cadjpy, which dictates that there should be a formation of a second shoulder (hence a bullish move in yen pairs). Once the second shoulder is formed, cadjpy should consolidate and then smash all yen longs – thus causing an era of depression in the forex industry, which would then create a great influx of new patients in the psychiatry wards around the globe! ^^

    Of course…. it may also be that a second shoulder will not be formed, in which case I would be a lot less confident in the market’s next move.

  5. You dont think this bullish move we are seeing now is going to continue then? Do you not see it breaking today’s open?

    I was tempted to go long USD/JPY at 91.20 with a fairly large position but missed it! Then it rallied!!!!

    Would you not advise going long anytime soon then? Do you see it breaking the all important 90.00 barrier? I was under the impression that 90.00 is a strong support for this pair

  6. I think today’s high will be broken – I do not see the bullish move lasting beyond the end of this week.

    I think cadjpy will drop not only because of jpy’s strength, but also of CAD’s weakness – though in usdjpy, 90 is a big level, but I think real support of the pair will come at 89.

  7. Do you expect the rise to continue overnight as the BOJ nominations take place? Maybe we could see 92.70?

  8. The nominations are old news now. I doubt the official announcement will move the market.

  9. adam .. is there any chance that once the nominations are official tomorrow these guys will start jawboning? thinking it would be natural for them to want enjoy the limelight but then again they may tactically keep their mouths closed to not jeopordise approval by opposition etc.

  10. there might be hearings where they jawbone but I wouldn’t expect them to go out of their way to talk down the yen. That would certainly jeopardize their nominations

  11. Hi , Adam

    i wld like to ask where the other editors are?
    i hv not seen them for a long time.

    Jamie , perfect pete and mr gerry

    all the best

  12. i think youre right .. which means there are 0 catalysts till the first BOJ meeting with them in place .. i should have sold this cr9p @ 94.5!

  13. Ah, Anand, usdjpy will go higher in a few months –

    I still expect a mild recovery in the days to come, and then a much bigger drop to 90 or perhaps lower – on Friday or next week.

  14. Looks to be a big bullish trend at the moment.. Whats going on??? I went long at 91.90, just looking at where to get out as i dont want to hold this trade to long as the general consensus is for it to fall soon..

    Max what makes you think that it will drop to 90 on Friday in particular?? Beginning of the month perhaps??

  15. USDJPY bounced from 91.125 support for a 3rd time, nice 3/1 risk reward available on a Long now Target 93.50 to 94 ish!

  16. If the general consensus is for it to fall – its prob better to go long.

  17. Andrew – looks like that bullish 1 hr pin stood up! nice spot to get Long!

  18. Andrew: Ah, in which case, this is also a great opportunity to go long in nzd crosses!^^

  19. You think it will make 93.50?

    Im still long, not sure how tight to set my stop though!! It seems to have slowed right down now! ;-(

  20. 92.10 seems to be decent support at the moment

  21. Yes i would also look to be long NZD crosses on a decent 4 hr price action signal and some confluence.

  22. Not sure it will make 93.50 however it fits the bill for a good risk/reward so its worth a trade.

    Stops will have to be below 91.25 to give the trade room to breathe. If this is a longer stop than normal reduce the position size and the add to position as it develops.

  23. Look at the structure of the USDJPY market on the weekly chart it could pop to 95.00+ so risk reward is there.

  24. Interesting analysis – go long if the consensus is that others are short (not sure where one acquires such concensus^^)

    Risk/reward ratio parameters –
    So… if I go long, with stop at -5 pips and set my target at 99 (usdjpy) – the risk/reward ratio is astronomical – a great trade!! ^^

    I keep thinking that what’s missing is the perhaps more realistic probabilities/trends/charts techs

    BTW, I’m with you that usdjpy will probably go higher for a little while, but I think it’s the basis of the analysis that concerns me @@

  25. What time are tonights BOJ nominations?

  26. Hi Max,

    I won’t touch usjpy untill it search 93/93,30 to short at this level… are you agree with that? ( I mean for that level ) .
    btw thanks for your previous advises, it’s good to learn techical analysis with people like you, mostly when you make 220 pips in less of 6hours :D
    many thanks (to you and his highness berlusconi lol)
    Lichaaa

  27. 93 seems like a good level to start shorting

  28. @lisandro i heard rumours that benanke is going to be given an official consultancy role with the BOJ..

  29. LOL please Ben have another speech … but not now!
    I’ve to confess this pair is susceptive with comment of that band of clown…
    what is your point on that pair Anand?

  30. Dollyen spiked out of an inverted pennant to print a double bottom on a fakey and now it`s rolling up after a breaking the pennant to the upside. It broke the daily pivot with momentum and is now consolidating ahead of the BOJ appointment. The measured target for the pennant reversal is R3 @ 94.0237.
    Risk currencies are making headway. Italy sold their paper. Draghi has cast his spell….. Risk on

  31. Target hit at 93.50 it took just 2 days from that bullish 1 hr pin @ 91.25.

    Good spot to start shorting it maybe

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