ForexLive European morning wrap: Up and down and up and down we go, again

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The forex trading headlines for the European morning session

  • Eurozone inflation april falls to 1.2% vs 1.6% exp  1.7% prev
  • German retail sales march -0.5% vs 0% exp  -0.6% prev. Note: original release by them was incorrect at -0.3%
  • German unemployment change april +4k vs +2k exp +13k prev. Total 3.03 mln vs 3 mln exp 3.1 mln prev
  • UK mortgage approvals march +53.5k vs +52.5k exp +51.7k prev
  • UK mortgage lending march + 0.4 bln vs +0.6 bln exp +0.8% prev
  • UK m3 money supply march -0.9% vs -0.5% prev
  • Japanese construction orders march -3.4% vs +16.3% prev
  • Japanese housing starts march +7.3% vs 5.5% exp  +3% prev
  • Italian unemployment rate march 11.5% vs 11.7% exp  11.6% prev
  • Gold leaps USD17 to 1480 on large futures trade
  • German unemployment rate april 6.9% vs 6.9% exp  6.9% prev
  • Eurozone unemployment rate march 12.1% vs 12.1% exp 12% prev
  • Berlusconi says Italy must re-negotiate deficit agreement with EU
  • German GKF consumer sentiment  6.2 vs 5.9
  • Nikkei 225 closes -0.17% at 13,860.86
  • Australian stock market highest since June 2008 at 5191
  • French consumer spending march +1.3% vs +0.1% exp -0.2% prev
  • Spanish prelim Q1 GDP q/q -0.5% vs -0.5% exp  -0.8% prev
  • SNB announce Q1 profits of CHF 11.2 bln
  • Italian CPI april +0.3% vs +0.6% exp  +2.3%prev

A busy morning mix of data and trader caution which has seen EURUSD fail again to break up through sell orders between 1.3120-30 and falling back to test good buying interest at 1.3050 after weaker than expected German retail sales then Eurozone inflation. For the most part though we’ve been 1.3070-90.

GBPUSD had another look above 1.5500 but didn’t like it and it too has been down to test lower support areas around 1.5465. EURGBP failed to make further headway towards 0.8475 option interest with the pair capping at 0.8463 before sliding back down to post lows of 0.8425 as the euro selling accelerated. Usual month-end demand has seen good support though and a decent rally to 0.8447 giving cable a heavy feel.

USDJPY looked heavy all morning having failed to hang on to gains above 98.00 and eventually broke lower through good support at 97.50, posting lows 0f 97.37 with EURJPY similarly having an up and down but, mostly down, time of it posting lows of 127.21 from a 128.15 opening.

AUDUSD once again picked up support from rising stocks and hit 1.0372 but once again shied away from taking on the sell orders from 1.0380 and, despite gold making a USD 17 leap the pair has drifted back to 1.0340.

Up and down and up down we go, and we wait to see if anything gives before the ECB on Thursday. Lack of liquidity tomorrow with a European holiday may yet have impact.

Author: Mike Paterson

Mike Paterson has more than 30 years of experience trading FX including key market-making roles as a senior spot trader with UBS and Credit Suisse. He was also head of FX at the State Bank of Victoria in London. With sizeable daily trading volumes Mike carved out a career combining professional integrity with a cynical grasp of seizing market opportunity. Since leaving the City, Mike has been working as an independent consultant and trading for himself, along with presenting seminars and writing for a number of publications. Mike now lives in Kent but remains a passionate sponsor of Southend United FC.


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Mike Paterson


  1. Mike what’s the view on Nzd usd, was expecting some correction in all nzd crosses after bad nzd data in morning and followed more disappointment out of Europe. What’s keeping this afloat s it FOMC unlikely as both Aud nzd and nzd cad have been going up and down reapecively.

  2. no real view on NZD tbh. It’s not a pair i get involved with normally but despite weaker data the perception is that interest rates will stay firm for a while yet and so the ccy gets yield support still

  3. Thanks mate…lets see what happens when NY comes in


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