If you needed any more evidence that the taper is all that matters, today you have it.

Here is what is going to happen on Wednesday: Bernanke is going to offer no hint about an impending taper but he will talk about what kind of data it would take for the Fed to begin tapering. At the same time, he will emphasize that the first moves toward tapering will be small and could even be reversed. He will also be cautiously optimistic about the economy but tell Congress to sort out the sequester.

Markets will be relieved by the message, stocks will rally and the US dollar will decline, especially against the commodity currencies.