Euro and pound fall after poor jobs data

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Work that one out. Bernanke says job market is weak and the printer’s still on max and the dollar gets sold. The data confirms and the dollar gets bought.

EUR/USD down to a low of 1.3010 while cable falls back through 1.5100 to 1.5077.

After many years of being in the market my expert analysis at the moment is toss a coin for direction.

In all seriousness it may pay to hit the sidelines for a while until the market sorts itself out.

Author: Ryan Littlestone

Ryan Littlestone has been working in financial markets for more than 20 years. Wide-eyed, he stepped out of Bank station in London to join LME founding member Rudolf Wolff where he worked his way to the main order desk and brokered customer orders to the LME floor and across virtually every global market. An opportunity to help set up and run a new LIFFE floor operation saw him catch the trading bug and it wasn’t long before the pull of the pits was too great to refuse. He became a ‘local’ and has been trading his own account for more than 11 years.

2013-07-11T12:54:55+0000

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Ryan Littlestone

23 Comments

  1. went long aud/usd on data release, staring at a loss scratching my head ?

  2. Since QE is currently off the table (for the time being), i think we are back to the risk-on/risk-off days… both USD and JPY are rallying on bad US data… Deja Vu!

  3. Yeah I am tossing a coin now with yesterday and today data, Today data support yesterday news, however it’s not

  4. Yeah I am tossing a coin now with yesterday and today data, Today data support yesterday news, however it’s not like that

  5. I’m with you on that one Ryan. None of this makes any sense to me. Last night’s whipsaw on the FOMC minutes took out all my stops, so I was well out by the time the fireworks started. I just don’t get what is driving these markets, how big levels in EUR/USD and GBP/USD can break so convincingly, not only without follow through but then lead to such massive reversals.

    I don’t have any strategies that can cope with that kind of thing. I don’t usually trade breakouts but I sold EUR/USD on the break on Thursday, like you. Then it just randomly drifted 100 pips higher during the session, while AUD/USD drifted 100 lower. Not great for my EUR/AUD short, on which I gave back 150 pips.

    I’m really fighting the urge to trade, but when nothing makes any sense and technical levels and momentum seem to mean nothing, I don’t feel like there’s a rational approach at all. Taking short term positions seems to me to be a coin flip, and longer term positioning is impossible because nothing will hold a trend, or commit to a breakout in these conditions. I was long USD/CAD for 2 weeks, on sound technical reasons, and I got stopped out last night. I think that’s the last long term trade I will ever try to take.

    Looking back over the last year in myFXbook, no trade that I’ve held for more than 3 days has ever been profitable, or been closed for more than a small gain. I know there have been long term opportunities out there, but bugger me if I can see any now.

  6. Sidelined seems like the best play at the moment without question.

  7. I don’t get it either at the moment.. My feeling is that it’s just randomly moving around and every week the fundamentals just turn around by 180°.

    So the sidelines are a good choice to watch it without losing money. :)

  8. It’s like trading shares, Ryan. “Buy the rumour, sell the fact”.

  9. keep calm , let’s see tonight usd will be weak again , let’s buy EU GU AU NU

  10. Good call Ryan, I was thinking the exact same thing. I was looking at entering cable at 5140 long and luckily it didn’t go up any further. Side lines are looking good for now and with our new national hero (Agar) killing the Poms, it might be where I stay all day if the market stay’s in this form.

  11. Don’t you mean buy the rumour, buy the fact, buy it if the sky falls in…etc etc ;-)

  12. Maybe market decided that this data was priced already…

  13. Cor, he’s hanging around like a bad fart NP. Fair play to the kid. It’s plays like that that make the ashes so great.

  14. lol, I forgot about all that helicopter money. So that’s “roll Ben’s $1,000,000,000,000 note to form a straw, and “snort the rumour, snort the fact”.

  15. good humour in the post ryan. i like it.

  16. Ryan,

    Timely and informed coverage of fast unfolding events from Eamonn last night and follow through from you and Mike, . thx

    roller coaster week on this end and intense scrambling off the BB switch to cover equity/oil losses.

    reversals work, but ups the pressure by quite a margin……more or less got squared up

    on the same page with others here …had enough of the Humpty Dumptyisms from Bernanke for a few weeks and off for some summer biking and pool time.

  17. I know what you guys are saying about levels being broken or fundamentals not holding. The only thing I find that has been always consistent to show what the market will do is volume, without it I’d be cluess where to trade. Yesterday I was trying to short at all the fib levels but volume was showing that it didn’t want to drop and few hours later I saw the carnage bull move.

  18. You’re too nice, Ryan. Make me feel I am not too stupid with your comment there. Taking another look at my trading chart and I see the offers at reported 130650 pretty much offered resistance since about about 11:00 GMT. Fundamentals just do not mean much in short term. Just about time I think I can read my charts, I find I should have been looking harder and maybe I could have seen it coming. My trading charts are definitely showing bearish for the EURO, for the present time anyway.

  19. Sounds like a plan Miss Feb. Enjoy it.

  20. That’s the great thing about trading 3clipz3, you find what works for you and make money.

  21. SCJ, it’s one of the reason I go far out on the charts when we get big moves and ignore the close stuff. When the market want’s to go the tech means nothing.

  22. I’m with you, on the sidelines since May… My sense is that the moves over the last few weeks are the result of very short term capital, with little capacity to hold risk. If you step back, despite the headlines, little has happened, not much new news has come through. Taper has always been a possibility, and no one seriously believed base rates would go up within a year or two. I think there is a bias for reducing QE, absent bad news. Does it really matter that it happens in September or early next year? Seeing price action so sensitive to the forecast date makes me stay on the sideline even longer. Short AUD though…

  23. Love it CP “on the sidelines but short A/U” :-D

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