Dollar whacked despite decent data

View Comments

The US dollar has fallen to the bottom of the currency pile today as the market shrugs off decent reports on initial jobless claims and durable goods orders. There were some caveats in the data but certainly nothing that screams to sell the dollar.

My guess is that the poor shipments data will lead to lower estimates of next week’s Q2 GDP report and traders want to get out of dollars. The consensus for the quarter has fallen to 1.1% from 1.4% two weeks ago. Just yesterday, Morgan Stanley cut its forecast to just 0.4% and Goldman released an estimate for 0.8%. Those estimates could be lowered imminently, raising the possibility that Q2 growth could be almost flat. Hard to imagine the Fed would taper in September with growth so close to nil.

The dollar decline today means USD has been the worst performer in three out of the four days this week.

Author: Adam Button

Adam Button is the managing editor of ForexLiveâ„¢. He was previously the chief currency strategist at XForex and has also worked with Intermarket Strategy. Adam believes there's an edge in knowing every tidbit of news. He was formerly the head of the markets team at the Canadian Economic Press and is a graduate of Ryerson University. Adam lives in Montreal, follow him on Twitter: @FX_Button.


All|Americas|Market Rumors|Regions


Adam Button


  1. pricing in d bad news but as long as dollar trade within the larger uptrend then its only a matter of time it resume higher

  2. Hi Adam, Aud/Usd rebounding seems like bid holding it hit 0.9199 and back what is your idea will it break 0.9200 any suggestion? Thanks

  3. You always seem to bring me bad dollar news. You must be a dollar bear!!

  4. I think it will break 0.9200. The series of higher highs and higher lows (albeit slightly) are a positive signal and the dollar just can`t catch a bid.

  5. Thank Appreciated Adam

  6. He isn’t a dollar bear Chief ;-) He’s just a first rate analyst and trader so he calls it like he sees it often with excellent incisive explanations for the reasons. Adam has posted many observations which explain why he was rightly bullish on the dollar at various times in the past. But I think you know that and are somewhat tongue in cheek?

  7. probably Chief is missing the old dodgy Chief …:-) we are here to think and to smile time by time, NOT to watch a kind of football game between dollar and antidollar , that was crap bullshit unreadable way to post comments!

  8. i hope u closed your longs way back chief…. 101.00 is a huge bargain in yer situation….
    rite now it’s hard to tell which way yen crosses will go……. bias is still up but i won’t be counting on tat… per my post way back, close at 99.00 and take a break from trading fer a few weeks, straighten up yer mind then come back a new man/woman with a tempered heart, soul and margin ;)

  9. Here we go on audusd above 0.9200 what next Adam?

  10. So far, so good eh Vicky! The market is pricing in a 70% chance of a rate cut but that’s a jittery sort of number. My guess is they get cold feet and retreat a bit, at least until we get more data. Just looking at the chart, we’ve broken the 38.2% retracement of the drop yesterday so look for 0.9220 and then take some money off the table.

  11. We make a good team Vicky!

  12. Yup Adam its great to talk you I,m done for today grabbed good profit on aud/USD,GBP/usd and EUR/jpy I hope you made some. Best of luck see you tomorrow. Good night


© Copyright 2015 ForexLive™  |  Advertise With Us  |  Login To Comment  |  Sitemap

HIGH RISK WARNING: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all of your initial investment; do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Educate yourself on the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions.

ADVISORY WARNING: FOREXLIVE™ provides references and links to selected blogs and other sources of economic and market information as an educational service to its clients and prospects and does not endorse the opinions or recommendations of the blogs or other sources of information. Clients and prospects are advised to carefully consider the opinions and analysis offered in the blogs or other information sources in the context of the client or prospect's individual analysis and decision making. None of the blogs or other sources of information is to be considered as constituting a track record. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and FOREXLIVE™ specifically advises clients and prospects to carefully review all claims and representations made by advisors, bloggers, money managers and system vendors before investing any funds or opening an account with any Forex dealer. Any news, opinions, research, data, or other information contained within this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment or trading advice. FOREXLIVE™ expressly disclaims any liability for any lost principal or profits without limitation which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. As with all such advisory services, past results are never a guarantee of future results.