A note from Capital Economics ( independent economic analysts, PDF). Short answer, not very:

  • China growth to continue to slow in coming years
  • Fears of a crash are overdone
  • Signs of stress across industry as a whole are hard to find
  • “This could change” – particularly concerned about the real estate sector; “If housing completions continue to grow at the rate seen over the last couple of years, the result will be a glut of hard-to-sell property in a few years’ time”
  • the recent slowdown is a positive development: “Continued rapid investment growth would raise the risk of a crash further down the line. So it is encouraging that investment growth slowed to 8% last year, from an average of 13% during 2001-2010, even though this has dragged GDP growth down as well.”
  • China adjustment still has some way to go

h/t Bill Bishop