Latest counts show Obama has a difficult (maybe impossible) task to convince Congress to bomb Syria

House of Representatives

The latest whip count for the upcoming vote on Syria shows 105 members of the House against military action and 117 leaning toward no for a combined 222 votes. Only 217 negative votes are needed to thwart the motion.

What’s worse 186 representatives are undecided or haven’t spoken out, which means that some of those leaning against it will need to turn and all the undecideds will need to support the President.

Senate

The Senate is murkier with 52 undecideds. There are 23 members in favor of action but 25 against or leaning against it. To pass or fail, the resolution will need 50 votes.

The Verdict

Obama is a longshot at this point, especially in the House. It will be the biggest setback of his Presidency.

He can legally launch attacks without Congress but it would be unpopular. On the other hand, backing away completely would damage his personal credibility and the US. In either case, this is going to be a very low-level operation perhaps only be a token campaign.

I continue to believe that oil is overvalued and at $110.40 looks extremely vulnerable to a fall on a negative vote.

Author: Adam Button

Adam Button is the editor of ForexLive™. He was previously the chief currency strategist at XForex and has also worked with Intermarket Strategy. Adam believes deeply in the value of knowing every tidbit of news. He has a background in journalism and was formerly the head of the markets team at the Canadian Economic Press. He is a graduate of Ryerson University and completed Level 1 of the CFA program. Adam lives in Montreal, follow him on Twitter: @FX_Button.

9 Comments

  1. Congressional support is not a trade you should go long on….

  2. adam,
    couldn’t agree with you more….mark it on your calenders…$70-80 oil by November 30

  3. Personally I don’t feel the UK lost credibility because of it’s backtrack – if anything it was a positive example of democracy in action. It’s possible the US could gain a little too – assuming it’s not too late with all the rhetoric.

  4. What about gold? May drop with oil?

  5. I like gold longs, so I hope not but I see the case for it.

  6. Got to agree that an oil short is looking attractive at the current 110+ level if senate don’t play obama’s game.

  7. If the Senate sees the House as being at all close, then it may take 60 votes in the Senate, because Rand Paul and others may threaten filibuster. But if it becomes very clear that the issue is dead in the House, then a filibuster is unlikely.

  8. Don’t count Obama out.He is used to getting his own way.He is still making the case for a limited strike.He is still making his case.If they say no ,don’t be surprised if he does it on his own.

  9. Maybe Obama is long oil

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