China trade balance for September – recap

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I posted the results from China’s September trade balance here.

A recap from the Wall Street Journal:

  • China’s exports unexpectedly shrank in September
  • Sign of weakening global demand for its products
  • Exports fell 0.3% in September compared with the year-ago period, data from the General Administration of Customs showed – sharply down from August’s 7.2% growth and far below economists’ median forecast of a 5.5% expansion
  • drop in exports was broad-based, with volumes to the European Union, Hong Kong and Taiwan dropping – exports to many developing economies also fell
  •  HSBC economist Ma Xiaoping said that new orders should have begun to come in from abroad for the Christmas season

Some of the huge decline is being blamed on the faking of data in the latter part of 2012 and the first half of 2013 (chickens coming home to roost?):

The overinvoicing of exports to disguise capital inflows—which started in the second half of last year and lasted into the first half of this year but has since waned—inflated the base in September 2012, said RBS economist Louis Kuijs

On the other hand:

  • Import data suggest China’s domestic demand remains strong
  • September’s crude imports were up 28% when compared with the corresponding month last year
  • Kang Wu, a senior adviser at energy consulting firm FGE, said September’s crude imports were likely supported by strong demand for diesel, which has recovered alongside China’s domestic economy.
  • Iron-ore imports last month also posted a fresh record at 74.58 million tons, up 9% from August and 15% from a year earlier.

China’s Exports Unexpectedly Shrink  (The Wall Street Journal is often gated, so if you’re unable to access the article try a search of Google news using the headline)

Author: Eamonn Sheridan

Eamonn Sheridan worked with Bankers Trust Australia for 13 years as a Spot foreign exchange dealer, trading across all major currencies and all time zones. He rose to a Vice President position, running spot operations during the busy European time, leaving the bank just prior to it being sold to concentrate on running his own business in the ‘real world’! The markets, however, had him hooked – he continued to trade equities, CFDs and then on to futures, giving him broad experience across financial markets. He is now active in FX and equity index futures as well as writing for ForexLive™. Eamonn is a graduate of The University of Melbourne in Australia and lives in New South Wales.


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Eamonn Sheridan


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