There are no traders more nervous today than the ones holding NZD/USD positions.

The Fed statement at 1800 GMT is followed by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision two hours later. Governor Wheeler has been simultaneously promising to hike rates while attempting to talk down NZD. Overnight, the kiwi briefly plunged on Moody’s chatter about downgrading New Zealand.

Wheeler has threatened to intervene to weaken NZD before but on Oct 25 he said he saw no opportunity to act at the moment. Without a credible threat, jawboning against the kiwi won’t carry much weight.

Technically, NZD/USD is approaching a convergence of support just below 0.8200 with the 55 and 200-day moving averages along with the October low.

NZDUSD daily chart

I think it’s way to risk to guess what the Fed and RBNZ will do but in the very-real scenario that the Fed is dovish and the RBNZ hawkish, the base of support could be a tremendous springboard for the pair.