Never trust a thin market.
A thin market is like playing basketball on the moon. The jumps are 10 feet high, the ball bounces funny and everyone is off balance. From time to time you see something spectacular but you’re not sure if it’s the athlete or the low gravity.
The euro went parabolic today, climbing to 1.3893 about 200 pips above the Asian open. It’s the highest since November 2011. After screaming to the high 2 hours ago, it has flopped back down to 1.3823.
That’s terrible news if you’re Morgan Stanley … or if you’re BBVA but it reinforces the theme of the resilient euro in 2013.
It shows once again that when the consensus is betting so heavily on something, look for the opposite.
Then again, this might be the time to catch the euro longs with their pants down…
