Oil has stumbled badly out of the gate to start the year. US WTI crude is down $2 to $96.46 after falling as low as $96.30.

The main level of support is the mid-December low of $96.21.

Last week, the gains stalled at the confluence of the 100-day moving averageand the 50% retracement of the Sept-Nov declines. Today, crude cut through the 55-day MA. A break of $96.21 would target $95.63.

US WTI crude oil chart

US WTI crude oil chart

Fundamentally, taper talk and increasing production in Libya are getting the blame.

Full disclosure: I’ve been short oil since Monday, I mentioned the trade here when I made it.