Today my view is it’s been a bit of a mess really. We’ve pretty much followed the data generally but even that has come with some funny moves. Yesterday I was nervous about the the potential bounce from Monday’s falls and while I’m not so today I still feel a lot of caution is warranted. The Nikkei didn’t bounce much overnight and that could be telling after the 610 tick fall the day before.
There’s a lot going on in the market at the moment but it’s all short term stuff and as such we’re just ranging intraday. Quite rightly I think the market has one eye on the NFP as that will set the next direction from here. The way the market has ignored the data today is telling of that fact. If it’s good then the dollar gets a big boost and we’re back on track. If it’s another crapfest then I can see the buck getting battered.
So it’s a bit ugly and messy at the moment and that’s not a market I really like to trade though there are plenty of opportunities there, the spikes and falls are likely to have done a lot of damage to the very short brigade as they’re likely to have seen stops busted both ways on moves.
Just before bed last night I sat staring at the screen for about 15 minutes deciding whether to cash in my USD/JPY longs and in the end I did. I just didn’t want to run the risk overnight. A good decision when I woke up and saw the price this morning. I’ve kept GBP longs in JPY, USD and EUR although was getting worried that I missed an opportunity to get out on the UK data this morning. Cable is the only one I’m not overly keen on but the others I’m happy with.
So what are you all making of the FX world today? Have you been stung by the chop or are you sitting it out until things calm down a bit?
