In addition to their results announcement, BHP have published their views of global economic growth and commodity prices:
- Balance of risk to global growth is skewed to the upside, particularly given the broad based alignment of macroeconomic indicators in the major developed economies
- Volatility in China growth will increase as Beijing trys to reduce reliance on export-led growth and onto domestic consumption
- Manufacturing surveys point to potentially faster industrial growth in the US this year
- “economies such as Brazil, Turkey and India are all scheduled for general elections during 2014 and could see a boost from improved confidence and activity if the results are decisive.”
- On Japan they urge caution – say recent signs inflation is starting to rise “must translate into higher household incomes over the next six to 12 months to validate the success of the current policy”
- In the short-term, iron ore supply to outpace demand as appetite from China eases
- Faster global growth should help support demand for copper … forecasts the copper market will “move back into deficit in the medium term”
