Here are some of the numbers to consider ahead of Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. Release time is 8:30 am ET.
- Median estimate 150K (145K private)
- Jan reading: 113K
- High est 195K (BBVA)
- Low est 100K (FTA Financial)
- Standard deviation: 22K
- NFP 6-month avg 177.5K
- Unemployment rate est. at 6.6% vs 6.6% prior
- Prior participation rate 63.0%
- ADP 139K vs 127K prior (155K exp)
- ISM manufacturing employment 52.3 vs 52.3 prior (6-month avg 54.2)
- ISM non-manufacturing employment: 47.5 vs 56.4 prior (6-month avg 54.0)
- Challenger job cuts -24.2% y/y
- Consumer Confidence jobs-hard-to-get: 32.5 vs 32.7 prior
- Philly Fed employment: +4.8 vs +10.0 prior
- Chicago PMI employment: 51.6 vs 60.9 prior
- Initial jobless claims 4-wk moving avg: 336.5K vs 333.3K at the time of the Jan jobs report
- Conference Board’s Help Wanted OnLine (HWOL) Index: +268K
- Dec JOLTS job openings: 3980K vs 3990K exp
non-farm payrolls
The ISM non-manufacturing employment component is one of the best predictors of NFP and it’s severely depressed, something that could indicate payroll growth at or below negative. There was yet another winter storm during survey week as well.
Remember to play our non-farm payrolls contest.
