• Sees slower growth in major advanced economies in the first half of 2014 than second half of 2013
  • Sees Japan GDP growing at 4.8% in Q1 then 2.9% in Q2
  • US GDP +1.7% in Q1, 3.1% Q2
  • UK 3.3% Q1 & Q2
  • Germany 3.7% & 2.5%
  • France 0.7% & 1.0%
  • Italy 0.7% & 0.1%
  • G7 2.2% & 2.0%
  • ECB and BOJ should consider adding monetary stimulus (I would assume more in the case of Japan)
  • Sees growing vulnerability of China’s financial system, needs to restrain credit growth
  • Fed tapering should proceed cautiously
  • EU inflation will stay low for extended period
  • Risk of emerging market turmoil remains

These are interim forecasts from the OECD and they point to a good start to the year followed by a slow down into the second quarter.