The Wall Street Journal has 4 things to watch for in the report, but it really should be 5 …
What are the 4?
1. Will we get a strong result to show hiring is picking up after the very poor winter weather?
- A reading above 200,000 would boost optimism about the labor market, but few economists expect job growth to reach November’s gain of 274,000 anytime soon.
2. The headline number only tells part of the story; those only working part-time because they can’t find full-time work remains elevated, a sign of slow labor-market improvement:
- 7.4 million “underemployed” in March; up from 7.2 million in February but below December’s 7.8 million
- The share of temp jobs to private payrolls stood at an elevated 2.4% in March, a possible sign of caution among employers
- The sectors that added jobs also could reveal the labor market’s underlying strength: manufacturing employment dipped in March after growing slowly in January and February, construction employment has edged up this year but remains far below its prerecession peak, & Retail job growth, which typically accelerates along with consumer spending, has stalled in 2014 after rising quickly the past two years
3. Labor-force participation (matching a three-decade low of 62.8% in December) picked up a bit in the first three months of this year… the question is whether that growth will be sustained
4. A pickup in wages would be a critical sign of firming in the labor market, forcing employers to pay workers more to secure talent, and also, watch for a change in the work week.
- February up 9 cents to $24.3
- Fell back a penny in March and were up a mediocre 2.1% from a year ago.
- The work week climbed a healthy 0.2 hour to 34.5 hours in March. An increase in hours worked would boost workers’ incomes and eventually consumer spending, the primary driver of U.S. economic growth.
And … the fifth: Will you triumph the ForexLive pick the NFP number and win a mug competition?! (Ya gotta be in it to win it)
Wall Street Journal (ungated)
