Unemployment rate for Q1: 6.0 %
- expected 5.8%, prior was 6.0%
Employment change for Q1: 0.9% q/q
- expected +0.6%, prior was +1.0% (revised from +1.1%)
Employment change for Q1: 3.7 % y/y
- expected +3.4%, prior was +3.0%
Participation rate for Q1 : 69.3
- expected 68.9, prior was 68.9
Average hourly earnings for Q1 : 0.7% q/q
- expected +1.0%, prior was 0.3%
Private wages including overtime for Q1: 0.3% q/q
- expected 0.5%, prior was 0.6%
Private wages excluding overtime for Q1: 0.3 % q/q
- expected 0.5%, prior was 0.6%
—
New Zealand going in the opposite direction to everyone else on the planet … yes, unemployment is up, but so is employment and the participation rate. On the flip side, prior employment growth was revised a little lower and wage growth has slowed to below what was expected 9the slowing in wage growth should argue for less pressure on the inflation rate and may be an input to slow the RBNZ rate rise schedule).
NZD/USD is wiggling a little, but not a great deal of change on the data release (as of typing). Earlier it had fallen on RBNZ governor Wheeler’s comments (here, here, here).
–
Added – NZD dripping a little lower now
–
BNZ’s take on the data:
- “Putting all this together, you got an outcome which showed activity stronger than expected but inflation lower than expected. At the very margin this has probably made the RBNZ more relaxed”
- BNZ don’t think labour market conditions allow any complacency for the RBNZ
BNZ is still calling for an OCR hike in both June and July, but, they add:
- “this is highly currency dependent and, the way things are going, a near term pause is looking increasingly likely.”
