The ANZ Roy Morgan consumer confidence measure is yet to gain a toehold as a focal point for the FX market, but it nevertheless gives a weekly snapshot.

For the week ended May 25;

  • Consumer confidence fell 1.1% to 99.3
  • It has dipped below 100 for the first time since May 2009
  • Confidence has now declined 15% over the past five weeks

ANZ attribute the rent falls to headlines about the tough government budget (both in the lead up and since)

In the most recent survey:

  • Consumers’ perceptions of “economic conditions next year” fell 6.2%
  • Perceptions of “financial situation compared to a year ago” (which is most correlated with spending growth) rose 1%

ANZ says:

  • The overall fall over the past two months suggest consumer spending could soften in the near term
  • Maintains its view that consumer spending will improve this year
  • Though the speed of recovery could be impacted by the federal budget

Meanwhile, the AUD it ticking through 0.9250/55, taking out some trading stops but running into sellers again.