Forex headlines for May 27, 2014:

  • US durable goods orders April +0.8% vs -0.5% exp
  • Capital goods orders non-defense and excluding aircraft -1.2% vs -0.3% exp
  • Large upwards revisions to prior durable goods report
  • US March Case-Shiller house price index +12.37% y/y
  • US March FHFA house price index +0.7% vs +0.5% expected
  • US May Markit services PMI 58.4 vs 54.5 exp
  • US May consumer confidence 83.0 vs 83.0 expected
  • Draghi: ECB will do everything feasible for the economy within its mandate
  • May Richmond Fed +7 vs +5 expected
  • Dallas Fed manufacturing +8.0 vs +9.2 expected
  • ECB’s Costa says there is no deflation risk in eurozone
  • IMF’s Blanchard says there is a risk of deflation in eurozone
  • EONIA sets at highest since quarter-end
  • Philly, KC and Dallas continue to vote for hikes in discount rate minutes
  • BOE’s Carney speaks about regulation not monetary policy
  • Goldman Sachs lowers US growth forecast, sees H2 at 3.25%
  • S&P 500 up 11 points to record 1911
  • Gold down $27 to $1266
  • WTI crude down 23-cents to $104.13
  • AUD leads, CHF lags

Gold grabbed the headlines today as a wedge formation broke and triggered a flurry of selling. Stops continued to break below the May and April lows and gold continued down to a three-month low.

The move in gold hinted at a broader dollar rally but the USD gains were modest. But look even closer and there were a few technical reversals (outside bullish/bearish days) that point to potential USD moves.

USD/JPY fell as low as 101.73 in Europe but turned around and climbed to a two week high at 102.14. A close at those levels would have been especially bullish but the pair faded back to 102.00, leaving it in the mushy middle.

Same kind of story for EUR/USD as what looked like a reversal to the lows at 1.3613 wouldn’t hold and bounced up to 1.3632 which is right back to the 200dma.

Cable was a bit more definitive as it painted a reversal that covered the two previous days and although it bounced late to 1.6805 from 1.6782, the chart is a bit uglier than elsewhere.

AUD/USD was in a 50 pip range from 0.9234 up to 0.9278 and that qualifies as a fairly volatile day in this market. It finishes right in the middle of the range.

USD/CAD made a fresh short term low but didn’t like the feel of things at 1.0836 and the pair was mostly bid in North American trading as it climbed up to 1.0870.

fx moves