June isn’t a month to get excited about for seasonal traders. Nothing stands out in the foreign exchange market. In USD/JPY, for instance, the average gain/loss over the past 30 Junes is 0.00% — no change whatsoever. In the past 9 years, the euro has been up 4 times in June and down 5 times.
Most other asset classes are the same. Oil is solid as strong WTI seasonals run until August while stocks are on the soft side but only as the third worst month over the past 30 years.
The asset class to watch in June is precious metals. It’s the worst month on the calendar for gold over the past 10 years, with an average decline of 0.59% but the real laggard is silver.
June has been an absolutely disastrous month for silver in the recent era. Over the past 30-years the average decline is 2.95% in, more than 100 basis points softer than the second worst month. Over the past 10-years the seasonal weakness is even more pronounced at -4.98%.
What’s particularly exciting is that the technicals are also beginning to line up with weakness. On the final trading day of May, silver fell to an 11-month low and there is very little support until the June 2013 low, which is 3% away.
silver daily chart
