The Australian dollar has entered an area of decent support after the largest fall in two weeks.
Most of of June has been an uptrend for the Australian dollar including a stretch of 7 of 8 days ending on Friday.
The Asian lows gave way in the post-CPI round of US dollar buying but bids at 0.9330 materialized. We’ve entered a zone of support from the 50% retracement of the June rally stretching to the 61.8% retracement and the 55dma.
AUDUSD daily
I wouldn’t hang my hat on any of those levels but there’s some convergence there and a retracement after a test of a 2014 high isn’t a big surprise.
The catalyst for today’s decline in the Australian dollar was the release of the RBA minutes. The RBA said growth was likely to be “a little below trend over the rest of the year and into next.” It was a dour report, no doubt, but the market is only pricing in 7 bps of hikes in the next 12 months (or a 28% of a hike).
The thing is “a little below trend over the rest of the year and into next” only takes us to this time next year, at latest. The RBA sees faster growth beyond that and as other central banks switch toward a more hawkish bias, so will they.
The order board shows bids at 0.9320with demand ahead of 0.9300 and stops below 0.9290.
