Australian dollar higher or lower by the end of the year? … Survey says … (Do you agree?)

| 5 Comments

An AAP survey of 17 foreign exchange professionals has found:

  • The median forecast for the currency on December 31 is 88 US cents

The article goes on:

  • The Aussie is widely expected to rise in the coming months before settling back to levels it was at before the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008
  • Until New Year’s Eve rolls around, the Aussie dollar is expected to trade between 87 US cents and 97 cents

Says AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver:

  • main factor expected to weigh on the dollar is possible interest rate rises in the United States next year.
  • “The market will focus more on that and that will act as impediment for the Australian dollar”
  • “We’re having a bit of a pause at the moment in the 90s and over time it’ll head below 90 US cents and ultimately I think we’re on our way to around 80 US cents”

There’s more at the article here: $A poised to fall below 90 US cents

gypsy crystal ball

Author: Eamonn Sheridan

Eamonn Sheridan worked with Bankers Trust Australia for 13 years as a Spot foreign exchange dealer, trading across all major currencies and all time zones. He rose to a Vice President position, running spot operations during the busy European time, leaving the bank just prior to it being sold to concentrate on running his own business in the ‘real world’! The markets, however, had him hooked – he continued to trade equities, CFDs and then on to futures, giving him broad experience across financial markets. He is now active in FX and equity index futures as well as writing for ForexLive™. Eamonn is a graduate of The University of Melbourne in Australia and lives in New South Wales.

5 Comments

  1. Wasn’t there a big bank saying it was going to rise to 99 US cents by the end of the year like last week? Morgan Stanley I believe? someone is going to have egg on their faces. tasty, tasty eggs.

  2. I don’t think it is poised for anything at moment, in range say 92–95..break on topside sees 98 break below sees 89. Odds slightly in favor of topside break as present. No strong conviction either way. Still an up the stairs down the elevator type of currency. My strategy at moment sell between 9450 and 9500 and buy between 9250 and 9200. Whilst in a range makes the crosses a better place to be for quicker moves.

  3. I tend to think that interest rate parity an PPP will pull it lower over the longer-term. But, in the long-run, we are all dead :)

  4. RIRP: i_$ – {\Delta}E_t({p^$}_{t + k}) = i_c – {\Delta}E_t({p^c}_{t + k}) Is this what you are referring to D
    Don’t hold your breath!

  5. it depends on what wheeler will do – and when – and how high both can go until then.
    and how stevens blubber (blubbern is the german word for “speak bubble”) :-)

    but dont trade the aussie against the usd, its only an indicator, use euro, yen, chf, but not against the heart of the monetary universe ;-)

    if we see .88-.90, i buy, otherwise i only look ….

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