We’re a bit light on the US calendar today but one piece of date that could ignite a spark is the PCE report at the bottom of the hour.
With US inflation rising to 2.1% at the last count, the Fed’s other price indicator could get nerves jangling that inflation pressures could start to mount.
The headline PCE number is expected in at 1.8% from 1.6% prior y/y with the core expected at 1.5% from 1.4% prior. A jump closer to the 2.0% mark might be enough to kick this this rotten market into gear. We can but hope.
Also in the report we get an idea of income and spending. Personal income is forecast at 0.4% for the month from 0.3% prior and spending is looking for a jump to 0.4% from -0.1%
Both components have remained very flat at low levels so once again, a sizable move up, particularly in income, will have the inflation bugs twitching.
Jobless claims is the other item on the docket at the same time and we’re looking for a 2k fall to 310k for last week but a 9k rise on continued claims to 2.570m
