Barclays Capital have put out their top 4 thematic FX trades for Q3 2014 and our old pals at EFX have got the scoop

1. Short EUR/JPY

They see the yen bottomed out against the dollar due to recent inflation developments and expects U/J to remain in a tight range. The ECB will continue to fight disinflationary pressure

EURJPY monthly chart 27 06 2014

EUR/JPY monthly chart 27 06 2014

2. Short EUR/BRL

Central bank willingness to halt prevent currency weakness, high real interest rates and the likelihood of market friendly elections are all Real positive and they prefer to play it against the euro as US rates look to move higher.

EUR/BRL monthly chart 27 06 2014

EUR/BRL monthly chart 27 06 2014

3. Short EUR/PLN

Poland to pull in inflows with high interest rates and strengthening, broadening growth and more external borrowing

EUR/PLN monthly chart 27 06 2014

EUR/PLN monthly chart 27 06 2014

4. Short EUR/IDR

Central bank commitment to reducing inflation and a narrowing in the current account deficit should override the risks from the upcoming presidential elections

EUR/IDR monthly chart 27 06 2014

EUR/IDR monthly chart 27 06 2014

So there you have it. A few pairs off the reservation and I’ve added some longer term charts for those that want to follow the trades. Bit pointless adding hourly charts for trades 3 months away. Barclays offer no entry levels on the note though.

What we can gauge from a snap judgement of the charts is that resistance for the euro upside is looking fairly strong.

Anyone trading the more obscure pairs and have anything to add?