With the MPC minutes out in around 5 minutes we need to start getting ready for when the hawks think about voting for rate hikes. We know and the market knows that rate hikes may come later this year or early next year, all being well, but the market isn’t ready for when the voters change their voting patterns.
One of the hawks, Spencer Dale is off the MPC panel and Kristin Forbes has joined.
If we do get a sudden change in voting it’s likely to send to pound higher on the knee jerk initially and it might sustain the move as any last doubters over rate rises might decide to join the pound buyers party.
What we may be seeing in the pound moves right now could be what we see every time the minutes are released in the months ahead.
I think this month is too early to see any in the MPC change tack but it’s something we need to be aware of.
If the pound is up on the expectation then this may be a good fade opportunity. I’m thinking about dangling a small short in ahead of 1.71 as the minutes tick down.
