This analyst says it is far too early to be crying over spilt milk.

From an RBC Capital Markets client note (bolding is mine):

  • “Fonterra now forecasts farmers will receive NZD6/kg in the year to May 2015 – down 14% from its previous forecast and almost 30% from the realised payout in the year to May 2014″

BUT …

  • “Only three months into the season, however, the final payout can still change materially‘

Which gives hope to milk bulls (How do you milk a bull?) … BUT … then they add:

  • “- in both directions“

Also:

  • “The RBNZ’s latest forecasts have a falling primary commodity prices already embedded in them”

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While the trend in the NZD seems to be turning lower, RBC saying its not necessarily true that Fonterra’s forecast milk payout of NZ$6/kg will be the final figure.

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Yesterday’s action: