Here are some of the numbers to consider ahead of the July non-farm payrolls report. Release time is Friday at 8:30 am ET (1330 GMT):
- Median estimate 230K (230K private)
- June reading: 288K (best since April)
- High est 310K (Fathom Financial)
- Low est 190K (FTN Financial)
- Standard deviation: 24K
- NFP 6-month avg 231K
- Unemployment rate est. at 6.1% vs 6.1% prior
- Prior participation rate 62.8%
- ADP 218K vs 281K prior (230K exp)
- ISM June manufacturing employment 52.8 vs 52.8 prior
- ISM June non-manufacturing employment: 54.4 vs 52.6 prior
- Consumer Confidence jobs-hard-to-get: 30.7 vs 30.7 prior
- Initial jobless claims 4-wk moving avg: 297K vs 314K at the time of the June jobs report
- Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine showed demand for jobs down 15.5K
- May JOLTS job openings: 4635K vs 4455K prior
One of the things that makes a preview for this report difficult is that the ISM surveys haven’t been released yet and they often provide a decent guideline. Interestingly, the employment component in today’s terrible Chicago PMI actually improved and the Philly Fed employment component was slightly better.
non-farm payrolls versus estimates — consistent outperformance
