You know I like looking for the edges of a trade, where the places are we see moves become exhausted. Usually the non farm payrolls would be the last main data point of a Friday so picking the levels is a bit easier. The manufacturing data makes that task slightly harder but here are the levels I’ll be watching.
USD/JPY
- 103.20/30. A bit too near to contain any big data volatility but a possible upside point to watch if we get a number close to expectations
- 103.70 may see the market held up but 103.90/104/104.10 will be stronger
- After that there’s not a lot in the way until 104.85/105 and the top of the 2014 channel.
- Below, 102.70 was a strong point on the way up and 102.20 has seen its fair share of action too
- 102.00/05 is the juicy level as aside from being a big figure it holds the 100 and 200 dma’s
EUR/USD
- 1.3480 is the number to watch above before an attempt on 1.3500. I should think that sellers will be waiting to take advantage of any decent jumps to sell into so time up here may be limited.
- 1.3545/50 is the broken July 2012 support line which could well see resistance
- Very dangerous below here. We have support coming in on the 55 wma at 1.3370 as well as the 100 wma at 1.3345
- Natural big figure support should be seen at 1.3300 but the bigger tech level to watch is the 38.2 fib of the 2012/2014 lo/hi at 1.3247
- If the dollar really kicks into gear then I fear even that may not hold us up and 1.3200 will be the extreme point
I haven’t realised what the time is so have these levels for now and I’ll see if I can knock up some others briefly before I have to get prepared for the data
GBP/USD
Given the falls there’s not much to grab as resistance on a move back up. The ultimate top to look for is 1.7000 but 1.6900 is looking a fairly strong level with further resistance at 1.6920/25 adn 1.6970/75
Below there’s not an awful lot until 1.6780, 1.6725/30 then 1.6700 being the strongest level
