According to a Reuters survey of US primary dealers:

  • 12 of 18 US primary dealers say the Federal Reserve won’t raise interest rates before second half 2015
  • 15 of 17 primary dealers surveyed see the Fed stopping balance sheet reinvestments after or at same time as first rate hike
  • Most primary dealers see the Fed keeping a range and not a specific fed funds target when it raises rates
  • 9 of the surveyed primary dealers see Fed’s first rate move to 0.25-0.50 pct range; three see rise to set 0.50 pct; two see 0.25 pct
  • Of the 19 primary dealers surveyed, the median forecast for the Federal Reserve’s long-term neutral target rate is 3.50 pct vs the FOMC’s current estimate of 3.75 pct

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Reuters survey results