July 2014 US advance retail sales 0.0% vs 0.2% exp m/m

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  • Prior 0.2%
  • Control group 0.1% vs 0.4% exp m/m. Prior 0.6%. Revised to 0.5%
  • Sales ex-autos 0.1% vs 0.4% exp m/m. Prior 0.4%
  • Ex-autos & gas 0.1% vs 0.4% exp m/m. Prior 0.4%. Revised to 0.6%

USD/JPY loses around 12 pips to 102.33 but the biggest beneficiary is the euro which has popped to 1.3383 from 1.3364. It’s been helped by a break in EUR/GBP through 0.8000 and that’s keeping cable offered.

US retail sales breakdown 13 08 2014

US retail sales breakdown 13 08 2014

Autos the big driver of lower sales as they fell for the second month on the trot. That flies in the face of the actual auto sales numbers reported from the major car makers.

The control group, which is effectively the “core” sales number is the worst of the numbers and yet again we don’t see signs of the improving jobs market filtering through into the economy.

US retail sales mm yy 13 08 2014

US retail sales mm yy 13 08 2014

Author: Ryan Littlestone

Ryan Littlestone has been working in financial markets for more than 20 years. Wide-eyed, he stepped out of Bank station in London to join LME founding member Rudolf Wolff where he worked his way to the main order desk and brokered customer orders to the LME floor and across virtually every global market. An opportunity to help set up and run a new LIFFE floor operation saw him catch the trading bug and it wasn’t long before the pull of the pits was too great to refuse. He became a ‘local’ and has been trading his own account for more than 11 years.


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consumer confidence|US economy|us retail sales

Ryan Littlestone


  1. As I said earlier in trading ideas – it is time for correction in US Dollar. So let the buying of Euro begin….now!

  2. Speaking of Ukraine – have you heard the latest news?

    The head of administration in Kharkiv – where the Russian humanitarian aid is supposed to go said that the goods from 280 Russian vehicles will be loaded onto 10 Ukrainian vehicles at the border and then moved to Kharkiv. Those must be some massively big-ass Ukrainian transport vehicles that they are capable to accommodate the goods from 280 Russian ones ;) Unless they believe that 270 vehicles contain Russian troops?! ;)

    In the end, if this doesn’t highlight the absolute stupidity of the new Ukrainian government, I don’t know what does.

  3. Hi Ryan,
    Which of these car sales numbers would you put more trust into, if you had to choose? The data here fudged by statisticians or the manufacturer data fudged by accountants?

  4. That’s a nice 45 pip move in euro – though no less impressive move in nzdusd.

    The thing is though is that this is just a beginning of the squeeze.

  5. That sort of puts me between the devil and the deep blue sea TR :-D
    I’d go with the statos myself. At least you can get confirmation (or not) from the econ data after the company data

  6. @hello,
    I do get you don’t like the Ukrainian government, but don’t be too quick to call them stupid :) Who reported that, in what context, could you drop a link?

    Let’s also make sure how many trucks with aid actually are in the convoy. I’ve seen it reported that 198 vehicles are trucks with the cargo, while the total is 262 vehicles in the column.

  7. TR: http://www.ukrinform.ua/rus/news/rossiyskuyu_pomoshch_peregruzyat_v_ukrainskie_mashini___baluta_1657327

    Ah – Now he is saying that the load will not be moved across Kharkiv – http://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/20140813153854.shtml

    I guess it’s a good thing, because the governor of Kharkiv has major issues with math.

  8. Thanks hello,
    To me that first news link strongly hinted at transfer in (several) turns from the Russian convoy to a place of the Red Cross with the use of these 10 trucks going back and forth (the reload being performed in groups of two trucks). The whole message was a bit chaotic though and easy to ridicule indeed.

    Whatever way the unload is performed in the end, I am sure accusations will be flying both directions.


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