What the banks are looking for from the BOE QIR

Courtesy of MNI here’s a nice snapshot of what some of the UK banks are looking for in the BOE’s quarterly inflation report coming up at the bottom of the hour

Barclays: expect the QIR to provide further analysis of the economy with the view to strengthen the case of future rate hikes, possibly already before the new inflation report.

Citi says the QIR and press conference are likely to signal three significant changes in the MPC’s view on the economy compared to the May QIR. 1) Labour market slack has fallen sharply; 2) MPC is likely to revise up growth f/c slightly; 3) MPC likely to revise down productivity growth & pay growth f/c’s.

Nomura says “QIR should be should be relatively hawkish as Governor Carney prepares the market for a hike in November.”

HSBC thinks the MPC will revise down its estimate of slack slightly, but with wage growth also set to be revised lower, a clear signal on the timing of rate rises is unlikely.

UBS says “on balance, a hawkish surprise is more likely than a dovish one. – Goldman Sachs expects the revisions to be “relatively minor.” –

RBS says risk/reward favours extrapolation of any hawkish inference.