I posted a little earlier what CitiFX are looking for from the FOMC Minutes and Jackson Hole.
Some more brief comments from around the place:
Deutche Bank:
On Yellen at Jackson Hole:
- “Yellen has been focusing on alternative measures of labor market slack” (eg. the duration of unemployment, part-time workers for economic reasons, depressed quit rate, lack of wage pressures)
- Yellen is likely to highlight several series which have yet to normalize
- Likely to agree “with the view that there is a substantial cyclical component to the participation decline in recent years” thus concluding the US economy is not overheating and rate hikes can wait until mid-2015
- “Of course, a dovish tone to Chair Yellen’s remarks could be upended by a unexpectedly robust August employment report just two weeks later but this is not our baseline scenario, as we anticipate a 200k payroll gain in August”
Bank of America/Merrill Lynch:
- “Jackson Hole is an unlikely venue for Fed Chair Yellen to signal a policy shift. We expect the only hiking talk will be on the trails”
Credit Suisse:
- We “fear Fed Chair Yellen might disappoint expectations when she addresses this year’s Jackson Hole symposium. Under different circumstances, the conference might have presented an ideal opportunity to clarify the FOMC’s monetary policy strategy given the significant progress made toward its full-employment objectives. But the geopolitical backdrop, soft patch in Europe, and corresponding fragility in risky assets may constrain Yellen’s rhetoric.”
BNP on the FOMC Minutes (due Wednesday):
- “FOMC minutes should give us a better idea of the Fed’s policy normalisation plans. The week’s economic data are likely to be a mixed bag.”
Western Asset Mgmt portfolio manager John Bellows, on Jackson Hole:
- “Even though the US economy is moving closer to the Fed’s goals, the high level of uncertainty surrounding the labor market and other growth drivers makes it unlikely that Chair Yellen will argue for anything that could qualify as market-moving.”
